Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time
I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output – the output gap – satisfies Okun’s law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool...
متن کاملReal-Time Output Feedback Neurolinearization
An adaptive input-output linearization method for general nonlinear systems is developed without using states of the system. Another key feature of this structure is the fact that, it does not need model of the system. In this scheme, neurolinearizer has few weights, so it is practical in adaptive situations. Online training of neuroline...
متن کاملThe Challenges of Estimating Potential Output in Real Time
The first paper, presented by Susanto Basu and John Fernald, addresses our knowledge in models of the concept of potential output. The authors focus on two concepts—(i) potential output as the long-run trend in output, largely ignoring fluctuations around the trend; and (ii) potential output as the level of output attainable today in two cases: first, if wages and price are fully flexible, that...
متن کاملA Novel Clustering Approach for Estimating the Time of Step Changes in Shewhart Control Charts
Although control charts are very common to monitoring process changes, they usually do not indicate the real time of the changes. Identifying the real time of the process changes is known as change-point estimation problem. There are a number of change point models in the literature however most of the existing approaches are dedicated to normal processes. In this paper we propose a novel app...
متن کاملEstimating the Time of a Step Change in Gamma Regression Profiles Using MLE Approach
Sometimes the quality of a process or product is described by a functional relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables referred to as profile. In most researches in this area the response variable is assumed to be normally distributed; however, occasionally in certain applications, the normality assumption is violated. In these cases the Generalized Linear Mod...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance
سال: 2014
ISSN: 1062-9769
DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2013.09.003